PROJECT 

 The Integrated Service Model Programme

 

TEAM:

Dr Paul Kavanagh, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, Clinical Lead;

Ian Darbey, Senior Data Scientist, Data Science Lead;

Lorraine Fahy, Health Modeller and Analyst;

Doireann Waldron O’ Loughlin, Business and Projects Manager;

Carney Kerr, Project Manager

 

LOCATION:

National Health Intelligence Unit

 

THE PROBLEM:

An ever-growing and aging population, and pressures associated with respiratory illnesses, all culminate to place increasing demands on access to unscheduled and emergency care, especially across the winter period. The Integrated Service Model (ISM) seeks to delineate these challenges and support decision-making to improve planning to mitigate risks to health services and patients. 

 

THE SOLUTION:

By simulating healthcare system performance against demand scenarios, key issues can be anticipated:

• Expected demand levels

• Patient flow performance at national and local levels

• Hospital sites at higher risk of demand-capacity mismatch

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Interventions can be designed and tested to assess potential impact prior to implementation:

• Demand reduction with community initiatives (specific sites, specialties etc.)

• Improved length-of-stay (specific sites, specialties etc.)

• Capacity expansion at acute hospitals and associated residential care facilities.

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Such interventions can now be tested under different conditions, and used to determine the best value and highest impact approach to improve patient flow, thereby reducing clinical risk associated with prolonged Emergency Department and in-patient stay.

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BENEFITS:​

The ISM programme has delivered key projects since the initial stand up of the modelling programme in support of Winter Plan 2020/21. Winter Surge modelling is completed annually, and the ISM programme team have completed several projects across strategy and operational areas, including:

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• Scheduled Care Modelling Project in 2022

• Home Support Demand Modelling in 2022

• Length of Stay Intervention Modelling in 2022

• Local Injury Unit Utilisation Analysis in 2022

• Private Capacity to Support Winter Surge Periods 2022 & 2023

• Multi-Annual Urgent & Emergency Care modelling in 2023

• Acute Bed Capacity Expansion Analysis in 2023

• Analytical Support for UHLG in 2024

• Analysis of Navan Reconfiguration

• Support for the Elective Hospitals Programme

• Analysis of Price Elasticity of Demand for UEC\

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PROJECT CONTACT DETAILS:

• Dr Paul Kavanagh - paul.kavanagh@hse.ie

• Ian Darbey – ian.darbey1@hse.ie